The world turned upside down

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
The blizzard, the blizzard of the world
Has crossed the threshold
And it has overturned
The order of the soul

--L. Cohen.

Pollution levels here reached 700 ppm a few days ago (over a 1,000 in India). The recommended safe level is 40! Fires in Australia, California and the Amazon this year have been eye-opening (though maybe you want to close your eyes).

A strong sense that what's written can't be changed (I know people don't want to talk about religion at this late stage of the day).

There's no fooling Nature. The idea that we were in rational control is rapidly changing from being naive to laughable. All those years of 'domestication' are about to be upturned- unless there's an upturning of the social and economic model that we've stuck to for so long.

Kevin Anderson on 'carbon budgets'. Really good. If we want to have any chance of keeping within +2 C then we can only release 800 Gt of carbon (we release about 40 per year which means about 20 years left). According to the economists it's 1,600 but we're talking about what scientists say.

That means if emissions peak around now there are going to have to be some drastic reductions in emissions assuming the chances of technological fixes (NETs and geo-engineering) are pretty utopian. Zero carbon by 2050 at the global level. That means 13-20% reductions p.a. for rich countries (if China continues to grow at 5% p.a.and is reducing its emissions by about 10% p.a around 2040) so that they're fully de-carbonized by 2035-40. 

Could that happen? If there was a change in how economies are fundamentally run..perhaps. But our addiction to commodities, travel, growth doesn't show any signs of abating (a global recession might help). Also, built in: urbanization, farming, ocean acidification, destruction of the rainforests (therefore fewer 'carbon sinks'). Built in to capitalism: inequality (the richest 10% are responsible for a big chunk of emissions). But also, it's not just the number of people..it's also that as they move from one class to another their consumption patterns will change (changing the demand for food, energy, cement, for example). 

The Amazon, apparently, produces up to 22% of our oxygen. What happens if our lungs become punctured? Remember, Nobel prize-winning economists like Nordhaus think that +3.5 C is "optimal". Is life on this planet going to be sustainable at that level? That's an average figure. Which means land surface temperatures could, on average, be +4.5 C. So, that means that some places might go, for example, +6 C. Think about that for a second. What does it mean for temperatures where you live to go up by 6C (11 F)?  

Personally speaking (I don't know about you, reader(s)), we're heading for the abyss (see ya, and thanks for all the fish). New estimates that with +2 C we could see up to 300 m displaced/effected by flooding. With 3 C the previous figure had been 300 million so who knows what it would be now. what does that mean for the lives of those people? What does it mean politically? Lots of people from this region are going to be royally fucked (not to mince words). Lots of poor people are going to be.

But no, carry on having your soya latte and carry on discussing the merits of Handke, the wonders of Literature. Just please don't mind if I get off the bus at some stage. 

So now you scramble to look for protective masks for the family. This is what it's come down to. 

I've got nothing against greed and stupidity as long as it is local and in small doses. Global levels of it, though, is quite a different thing altogether. Call it want you want: the Anthropocene, the Capitalocene. I couldn't give a fig at this stage. Brace yourselves ladies, the ride has just begun.